by Jason Bodner
July 22, 2025
I wonder… if the average lifespan of a housefly is only two weeks, does that feel like a lifetime to them?
According to scientists, animals experience time differently from humans. The smaller the animal, the more slowly time feels to them, compared to humans. For example, flies experience time more slowly than salamanders, which in turn feel time slower than a dog, and so on, up to humans. And humans feel time faster than a Greenland shark, which can live hundreds of years. This is because the perception of time depends on how quickly the brain can process all the relevant incoming information.
Likewise, history tells us that markets move higher during cold months and fall in warmer months. This was once expressed as “Sell in May and Go Away.” More recently, July caps off the strongest period for stocks, after which stocks take the late summer off. History tells us that perhaps investors should, too.
“Market time” during August and September passes slowly for bullish investors, as the weaker “dog days” of August tend to recall those “lazy days of summer.” But as volatility typically amps up, usually in late September, things tend to happen more quickly. Stocks whip around and violent moves are expected.
Markets can act fast or slowly. It’s complicated. Looking at the market data since 1990 (below), we can see that July is typically very strong. So far, we’ve enjoyed a great July for stocks, but we’ve now entered the second half of July, and you can clearly see we should not expect much from August and September:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
July is the third best month (behind November and April) in the Dow and S&P 500 since 1990, while August and September are the two worst months of the year since 1990, as shown clearly here:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
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