by Jason Bodner
June 10, 2025
The first roads were made by animals. Eons ago, animals like dinosaurs, and then mammoths, walked over the same areas repeatedly. These paths eventually turned into roads that humans could use.
Then the Romans were the first to pave roads.
Well, the road toward profits so far in 2025 has been rocky and unevenly paved, to say the least.
shutterstock.com : 657713080
But there’s more to this market than meets the eye. I know I’m a broken record when I say that most news headlines paint an entirely different picture than what the cold-hard data says.
If you read headlines or click bait, you must navigate Musk’s feud with Trump, North Korea re-floating a warship, or Russia’s newest missile and drone attacks on Kyiv – all trying to fill you with despair or fear.
One of my hopes is that I will convince at least a few people that the news is something to be treated as suspect. Its main business model is to sell advertising, so it will usually be as provocative as possible.
If you look at the data more than the news, the smart money is buying stocks in droves. There is a quiet but fierce bull market raging in stocks. Those of you who have been following this column knew that long ago – near the trough of the market, since we first expected that stocks would bottom out on April 1st, and they did so five trading days later on April 8th. We suggested preparing your buy lists well in advance, in order to take advantage of the big bounce that was statistically highly likely to come in early April.
My partner and I prepared our own lists and bought into the fear. Two of our stocks saw 50% returns since then. But don’t fret if you missed that bottom. Merely staying long and not selling into the panic was the next best move. Many accounts are right back where they were in February – or within spitting distance.
The good news is that, based on our data, there’s still plenty of opportunity left. Today, I’ll show you that there is still a bull market left for stocks. I’ll show you how and when it began, according to how I see the world. And then I will show you why the engine of the bull market still looks very encouraging.
First, let’s visit the Big Money Index (BMI). It has risen from the depths and sits just a kiss under its “Overbought” territory (80% or more). The ratio of inflows versus outflows for the past 25-trading days is 77.2%. History has shown us that when it is 80% or higher, that level of inflows is often unsustainable. While that may be frightening to hear, bear in mind that the BMI can stay overbought for a long time:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
After the COVID wipe-out, the BMI went to overbought territory and stayed there for a 35-year record of 87-trading days. Had investors bailed on stocks out of fear, they missed out on a 26.3% rise in the S&P:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
So don’t stress out just yet. Instead, focus on when the BMI falls from below 80%, the overbought range.
More important than fearing a drop is understanding the ascent. Using Money Flow data, we can see that since May 12, there have been huge equity inflows after a wipe-out capitulation in stocks and ETFs:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
The key question is: What kinds of stocks and ETFs are getting accumulated on heavy volume?
I’m glad you asked! Looking at flows by company size, we see small-cap and mid-cap stocks have dominated inflows. Not only that, but inflows have outnumbered outflows by an astonishing 5.5-to-1!
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Now, if you’re concerned that this rally is on weak volume after the April crash – worry no more. The following chart of elevated trading volumes measures how many stocks and ETFs trade on unusually large volumes. The daily average for the past 20-years is 508 per-day, so we are right on cue:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
To take this bull market one step further, we want to see strong growth-heavy sectors leading the charge. That indicates that investors believe economic growth and margin expansion is in the cards. We can see that by checking on which sectors are seeing the most inflows, and then looking carefully at the individual equities and ETFs for the most inflows. Let’s start with sectors. Since the April 8th lows, we can see the rise of growth-heavy sectors like Technology, Industrials, and Discretionary.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Note that the more defensive and yield-intensive sectors like Staples and Real Estate fell in the rankings. These rankings incorporate institutional demand as well as fundamental and technical strength.
We can see that more clearly at the individual sector level. Look at Industrials, Technology and Discretionary. They are seeing visible inflows. Also encouraging is the fact that after a dismal year-to-date, Health Care stocks are seeing inflows for the first time since they were at recent highs:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Zooming in even closer, I took the Technology sector and looked specifically at which stocks were seeing inflows. This is because Technology is historically strong fuel for a bull-market. Look what I found:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Software stocks are the apple of smart money’s eye right now. Is anyone talking about that? Well, we are.
It’s the same for ETFs. I looked at ETFs getting big inflows since May 12th, and 86% are equity ETFs:
When we dig one-layer deeper, we see “risk on” is the name of the game. Within the 190-equity ETFs, the defensive categories have retreated. It is also interesting to see that Crypto ETFs are attracting capital:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
When we look at the individual ETFs, we see a global risk on theme. Just scan this list for evidence:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
The news say we are in trouble. The data, however, tell us that the road is bullish, paved with optimism.
“Roads were made for journeys, not destinations.” – Confucius
All content above represents the opinion of Jason Bodner of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
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History Tells Us That America Will Likely Thrive After Crises
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Elon Musk May Have Ulterior Motives
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
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Jason Bodner
MARKETMAIL EDITOR FOR SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
Jason Bodner writes Sector Spotlight in the weekly Marketmail publication and has authored several white papers for the company. He is also Co-Founder of Macro Analytics for Professionals which produces proprietary equity accumulation and distribution research for its clients. Previously, Mr. Bodner served as Director of European Equity Derivatives for Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in London, then moved to the role of Head of Equity Derivatives North America for the same company in New York. He also served as S.V.P. Equity Derivatives for Jefferies, LLC. He received a B.S. in business administration in 1996, with honors, from Skidmore College as a member of the Periclean Honors Society. All content of “Sector Spotlight” represents the opinion of Jason Bodner
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