by Jason Bodner
August 19, 2025
In the 17th century, sailors navigating the Pacific Ocean sometimes found the wind would die completely, the sea would go glassy, and yet ominous dark clouds gathered on the horizon.
This eerie calm before the storm seemed so inconsistent with the threatening skies on the horizon.
Markets can behave in the same way. Signals can appear contradictory, sometimes downright baffling.
These days, we’re looking at a perfect example: the Big Money Index (BMI) is falling while stocks are rising. This also happened in January 2020, right before COVID hit, so should that give us pause?
Back in early 2020, outflows spiked briefly before fizzling. It felt like a false alarm – until the market tanked and outflows surged to historic levels. Now, the question becomes: Is today’s set up the same?
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
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