by Jason Bodner
August 5, 2025
In Florida, school starts in early August. That’s weeks before most kids in the Northeast sharpen their pencils or pick out their first-day outfits. And frankly, it feels wrong to me – and to many other families.
Some chalk it up to tradition. In the early days of the American school system, schedules were built around the farm calendar—kids were needed at home in spring to help plant and in the fall to help harvest. While that logic no longer applies to most of us, it left behind a legacy: Summer breaks ending in August.
Here’s the kicker for investors: August shouldn’t just be reserved for vacation from school — the whole month should also be a vacation from the stock market. Louis Navellier has long advocated this, but I would make vacation even longer. Maybe we should shut the markets down for most of September, too.
Historically, we are entering the sloppiest stretch of the year for equities. Since 1990, July has typically been a strong month for stocks, and this year was no exception. But as we flipped the calendar to August, the seasonal weakness began. Case in point: As I write this on August 1st, stocks are already sagging, with the NASDAQ down 2.24% on the day and the S&P 500 off 1.6% on the first day of August.
If history is any indicator, the turbulence could get worse before September ends:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
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