by Bryan Perry
May 13, 2025
Investors are always looking for a “can’t miss” secular theme, one where they can position capital and basically “set it and forget it.” So far, almost every sexy growth theme that has enjoyed market tailwinds is now up and will most likely be tested again, due to the prevailing uncertainly and lack of clarity.
It is now hard to find a technical analyst who would tell you the market isn’t overbought on a short-term basis. Looking at the S&P 500, the near-term technical indicators – like money flow, stochastics and MACD – are pinging at the high end of their respective ranges, implying that more positive news on the trade front may be imminent. The market is rapidly pricing in a blanket 10% base tariff rate along with higher (20% to 30%) levels for India, China, and other nations where tariffs on U.S. imports remain high.
For chartists, this is either going to be the mother of all “V-Bottom” formations – where the market rises and doesn’t look back – or history will find a way to repeat itself, where the S&P will pull back to around the 5,400 level on a lack of bullish news that is not already priced in the market, providing investors with another compelling entry point to initiate and add to existing positions. The swing in sentiment has been incredible, and there is no reason to think that this fresh bullish tone can’t be tested over the near term.
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