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4-15-25: Probability is Harder to Track During this New “Age of Uncertainty”

by Jason Bodner

April 15, 2025

Uncertainty was once left to fate, divine will, or simple luck. But in the 16th century, Gerolamo Cardano—a mathematician, physician, and gambler—applied logic and numbers to it. He studied dice games and realized outcomes had measurable probabilities. His calculations prefaced modern probability theory. Cardano’s insight wasn’t just mathematical, it was philosophical. He sought to understand uncertainty rather than fearing it. His work inspired later thinkers, like Pascal and Fermat. Cardano helped shift the world from mysticism to measurement, fundamentally changing how we think about risk.

That doesn’t offer much comfort today. Uncertainty dominates, yet data is our only tool to navigate it. By analyzing similar periods in market history, we can attempt to frame possible, or probable, outcomes.

The Recent Carnage, In Perspective

SP500 Return Table 1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

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