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1-22-25: Don’t Trust Any 10-Day Forecasts … About Anything

by Jason Bodner

January 22, 2025

Would it surprise you if I told you that weather forecast accuracy falls the farther out you go?  Probably not, right?  I mean, if the Weather Channel predicted rain this afternoon, you’d probably dress to avoid getting wet. But if the Weather Channel said that on September 26th this year, in lower Manhattan, there is an 89% chance of precipitation, what would you think? Probably, you’d think somebody is crazy.

Our modern world relies on predictions to help guide our decision making, so let me hasten to add that, when it comes to weather reporting, according to a report form forecastwatch.com, The Weather Channel is the king of forecast accuracy. But there are two things you should know about that statement:

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