1-7-25: Recalling January 6th and All That Jazz

by Gary Alexander

January 7, 2025

Yesterday was January 6^th, when the new Congress (the 119^th) met to tally the Electoral College votes so that President-elect Trump is cleared for Inauguration in two weeks. That is generally a formality, but four years ago it turned into a protest and then a Storming of the Bastille, a sad day in American history.

So…how did the stock market react the week of January 4-8, 2021? Take a guess before reading on…

On Monday, January 4^th, 2021, the S&P 500 closed at 3,700 and change. Then it rose every day that week. The assault on the Capitol came on Wednesday during market hours: The market closed up 0.57% on January 6^th. Then it rose by a giant step (+1.48%) the next full day, Thursday, January 7^th, and it also rose 0.55% on Friday. All in all, the S&P rose 3.35% from Monday through Friday, January 4-8, 2021.

Then – no net gain for 22 months. The irony is that the stock market went nowhere from Friday January 8, 2021, to the mid-term election on November 8, 2022. In that 117^th Congress, the Democrats controlled the White House and both branches of Congress. That’s when the Biden administration drafted several big stimulus spending bills but chose NOT to raise taxes or repeal the Trump tax cuts nor his tariffs.

Specifically, the S&P 500 was 3,851.65 on Inauguration Day, January 20, 2021, and it stood at 3,828.11 on election day, November 8, 2022, when the Republicans took back control of the House – so when you say there was a great stock market in the Biden years, you are referring ONLY to his second two years.