by Jason Bodner
January 7, 2025
The human mind is amazing.
Faced with the same event, we often see wildly different views and approaches, which become different traditions. Here in the U.S., we celebrate each New Year’s Eve at my house with food and drink. Then, at 10 minutes to midnight, we turn on the TV and gather around to watch this decades old tradition of the ball dropping at Times Square, New York City. Honestly, I would skip it, but others were pleading for it.
That tradition seems downright boring compared to Brazil. Many Brazilians go to the beach for New Year’s Eve, where they consider it good luck to make seven wishes while jumping over seven waves.
For me, I am more of a scientist, and a practical statistician, so January 1 is just another day to me, and midnight is another tick of the clock. But, for many, a page is turned, and everything seems to start over.
The market clock strikes “reset” each January 1. We now have to wait a full year to chronicle the best and worst performers for 2025. It’s a bit arbitrary when you think about it. The business that was doing just fine last week doesn’t really differ from the business that opens again this week. But, in the spirit of keeping with the mass mindset, let’s take a look back at 2024, which may help us to look forward to 2025.
First, let’s check in on the Big Money Index (BMI) at year’s end. This is our trusty measure of unusually large money flows – buying or selling. It just dropped to 50%, which may sound like a bad omen.
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